Is the age of the bookkeeper coming to an end? Is the payroll specialist an endangered species? Are the days of the tax preparer who focuses on basic 1040s numbered?
As those jobs are currently defined, the answer is probably "Yes," according to many industry experts — but reimagined with a set of new tasks and skillsets that build on, rather than replace, the number crunching that typifies many of these positions today, then the answer suddenly becomes "No."
Douglas Slaybaugh, a CPA career coach, pointed to bookkeepers as an example. Someone who just handles the billing, who just processes invoices, who just inputs journal entries — these professionals are in trouble. But someone who does all that while also providing clients with insights and advice based on the data they've processed can still build a viable career.
"What happens to the number cruncher [in the face of] AI? There's no more numbers to crunch, they're being crunched by AI, it's the perfect number cruncher and at least in theory much cheaper than staff. … So, how do I redefine [bookkeeping]? Someone great at analyzing this information, translating it for the business owners, being part of making adjustments not just to the books but the business so it can become more what the owners want it to be — it can be the same title but the number crunching is a lot less," he said.
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Chris Vanover, who leads accounting talent solutions firm CPA Club, noted that you just don't need as many people to do the routine work anymore, so the main value of a human being in this position is, as Slaybaugh said, to bring human insights and analysis to these routine process, as well as provide oversight to the machines. For those who are not prepared to offer these things, it will be more difficult to demonstrate a true value proposition. He pointed to a company he'd recently sent a proposal to who had been using an outsourced service provider who was not making these kinds of judgments and was, instead, just processing data. The provider wound up paying a fraudulent check as a result.
"That is a very bad situation. The bookkeeping is all automated, so what utility does the individual have if they can't analyze what the systems are telling them and make a judgment call?" he asked. "You don't need the traditional data entry person, the bookkeeper, but the person with the higher skillsets who can analyze those things. Those who do not [do this] are at risk."
When it comes to bookkeeping and other routine processes like simple individual tax returns, Jeff Phillips, CEO of Padgett Business Services and co-founder of accounting recruiter Accounting Fly, said that a lot of these services just aren't viable for many firms anyway. He noted that his own company is seeing unusually high demand for individual 1040 processing. While this might indicate rising opportunities for processing these returns, he thought that might not be the case: Clients who needed these done are being fired by their accountants, who more and more don't see a financial benefit for providing these services.
"What's happening is the cost of labor to prepare individual tax returns is so high and the market for it is so low that people aren't making money in this business, and so are looking to divest large packages of 1040 individual tax returns," he said.
While there is still a lot of money processing simple returns, according to Phillips, it will be done by fewer and fewer companies who can achieve the scale necessary to make it worth their while.
But Mike Policicchio, Americas assurance transformation leader and audit partner at Big Four firm Ernst & Young, pushed back on the idea that the number cruncher is going extinct, saying that while a lot of routine tasks can be automated, not all of them can. He noted that his own firm has been developing centers for specialists who want to concentrate on very specific things, who will lend their experience and expertise to other professionals in the field.
One such specialization, he said, is rote and routine work: "If you think about … taking tasks and moving to central groups, there are certain tasks that are more routine, more rote, lower-risk, and those are moving. And there are people who thrive on that type of work; they like the routine, they like doing the same thing. There are other types of people who don't and want to go deeper and like varied experiences. And what I'm seeing is we're able, as we move towards more centralization and tech continues to advance, there are different types of professionals we have, and we're able to flex the work a little bit [for both]," he said.
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He said such centralization will likely grow as advancing technology allows for even more connectivity and communication. This will be good for clients, because while many routine tasks can be automated away, he felt there will always be a role for people.
"I still see a role for 'crunchers,' if we want to call them that. I do think that there are some routine tasks that will remain, and I do see a continued evolution of those routine tasks to these centers … They will get the opportunity to work at the top end of their license and upskill themselves with these experiences. But I do think those routine tasks, you can automate some of them, but some are here to stay," he said.
