More than half (54 percent) of business executives anticipate negative impacts to their organizations if a new round of economic stimulus is not enacted by early 2021, according to the AICPA's fourth-quarter Economic Outlook Survey.
The survey polls CEOs, CFOs, controllers and other executive CPAs across U.S. companies. The survey was conducted from Nov. 10 through Dec. 2, 2020, and ultimately received 740 responses.
A majority of survey respondents said no new stimulus would have a slight (28 percent) or moderately (18 percent) negative impact on their companies, with another 8 percent saying it would have a significantly negative impact. Twenty-three percent of business executives added that a new economic stimulus package would have to come in the next month or two in order to be effective.
Thirty-four percent of respondents felt the opposite, saying that a new stimulus package would have no impact on their companies. A scant 7 percent predicted a positive impact from renewed stimulus, with 5 percent saying they weren’t sure what to expect.
As the U.S. is currently experiencing a record number of COVID-19 cases, polled business executives still have an improved outlook on the economy this quarter, with 37 percent expressing optimism about the next 12 months, compared to 24 percent in Q3. Optimism on respondents' own companies also rose to 49 percent from 41 percent in Q3.
“Business executives overwhelmingly say containment of the pandemic is the most important thing government can do right now to help them, eclipsing renewed stimulus, business relief or keeping taxes and regulation in check,” said Ash Noah, managing director of CGMA learning, education and development for the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, in a statement. “There are signs of optimism from our survey respondents that some answers lie ahead on the pandemic — stronger profit and revenue expectations, for example, and a better hiring outlook.”
Other notable findings from the survey include:
- Approximately 55 percent of business executives say their companies have returned to, or exceeded, pre-pandemic staffing levels. Another 13 percent expect to reach these staffing levels within 12 months. (These figures varied by industry, with hospitality, for example, continuing to decline.)
- Concerning the short-term, 17 percent of business executives said their companies planned to hire immediately, up from 13 percent in Q3 and 7 percent in Q2.
- Profit and revenue expectations are no longer showing contraction. Revenue is now projected to increase at a rate of 1.2 percent over the coming year, up from a projected decline of -0.6 percent in Q3. Profits are projected to be positive 0.2 percent.
- Some 47 percent of survey respondents said their companies plan on expanding in the next 12 months, up three percentage points from Q3.
- Some 27 percent of business executives expressed optimism about the global economy, up from 17 percent last quarter
- “Domestic economic conditions” and “domestic political leadership” remained the top two issues impacting businesses, according to those polled, with “availability of skilled personnel” placing third.
For more on the Economic Outlook Survey, head to the AICPA's
