Clock is ticking for cheap EV leases

If the incoming Trump administration eliminates $7,500 federal tax credits for electric vehicles, that would mean the end of popular leases that allow U.S. consumers to sidestep restrictions on which EV models qualify for incentives.

President-elect Donald Trump's transition team intends to revoke the tax credit for purchasing an EV, Reuters reported last week. Whether and when that could happen remains uncertain. A companion EV-leasing credit in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act would have to be dealt with separately but is widely seen as vulnerable. So people hoping to acquire an electric car might want to act soon.

"If you're on the fence, right now is probably going to be one of your better opportunities to buy or lease an EV at a good price, at least for a few years," said Chris Harto, a senior policy analyst at Consumer Reports. "Some of the cheapest ways to get into an electric vehicle over the past year has been an EV lease."

Megan Varner/Bloomberg

In October, leases accounted for 79% of EV sales at dealerships, according to Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights at automotive research firm Edmunds.com Inc. "When you see the tax credit applied to a three-year lease combined with some of the generous incentives the automakers themselves are offering, the EV deals are pretty compelling," she said.

This week, for instance, you can drive home a luxury electric BMW i4 for $460 a month, about the same price as leasing a middle-of-the-road gasoline Toyota Camry. Hyundai, meanwhile, is currently offering its sporty electric Ioniq 5 for $199 a month on a two-year lease.

Edmunds' numbers don't include automakers such as Tesla and Rivian that sell directly to consumers and that don't release the percentage of their customers who opt for leases. 

The IRA limits the purchase tax credit to electric vehicles assembled in North America and requires a percentage of battery components and critical minerals to originate there or in countries that have signed a free-trade agreement with the U.S.

But the sticker price can't exceed $55,000 for a car or $80,000 for an SUV, and only households earning up to $300,000 annually and individuals making up to $150,000 can claim the tax credit. EVs such as the Chevrolet Equinox, Honda Prologue and Volkswagen ID.4 get the green light, but if buyers have their eye on models like the Hyundai Ioniq 5 or a Polestar 2 — which aren't assembled in North America and don't meet the battery and critical mineral requirements — they're out of luck.

Unless they lease. Those restrictions don't apply to the federal government's commercial clean vehicle credit program, which allows fleet owners like automakers' finance arms to claim the tax credit. That lets manufacturers entice customers by passing on the $7,500 savings in the form of lower lease payments.

Caldwell said leasing is also attractive to prospective EV drivers worried about the risk of purchasing a $50,000 car only to have its technology become outdated while still owing payments. "We've also seen pretty heavy depreciation for electric vehicles, so if you lease you're not left holding the bag if the vehicle declines rapidly in value after three years," she said.

If the lease loophole is closed, "EVs are going to have to sell on their own merit, which we know is always tough when there is a new technology and people still have concerns about battery longevity, range and infrastructure," said Caldwell.

Congress would need to pass legislation to kill the EV tax credits, according to Romany Webb, deputy director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University. But absent Congressional action, she said Trump could order the IRS to revamp its guidance on how they are used.

The agency "could, for example, revise the list of vehicles that are eligible for the tax credits or add new procedures for claiming the credits," said Webb. "That could make it more practically challenging for people to take advantage of the credits and, generally, introduce a lot of uncertainty and confusion that could make people less willing to purchase or lease EVs."

Consumers aren't the only ones who would feel the impact if the credits are tightened or repealed. "These tax credits are for consumers, but they're also really for automakers so that they can scale up the production of electric vehicles and can remain competitive," said Harto. "So while repealing the tax credit will hurt consumers, it probably hurts automakers even more."