(Bloomberg) The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in a widely telegraphed move while signaling that the pace of subsequent increases will be “gradual” and in line with previous projections.
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, up from zero to 0.25 percent. Policy makers separately forecast an appropriate rate of 1.375 percent at the end of 2016, the same as September, implying four quarter-point increases in the target range next year, based on the median number from 17 officials.
“The committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective,” the FOMC said in a statement Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington. The Fed said it raised rates “given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes.”
The increase draws to a close an unprecedented period of record-low rates that were part of extraordinary and controversial Fed policies designed to stimulate the U.S. economy in the wake of the most devastating financial crisis since the Great Depression. The FOMC lowered its benchmark rate to near zero in December 2008, three months after the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and 10 months before unemployment in the U.S. peaked at 10 percent.
Inflation Outlook
"The one phrase that I think is notable is that the committee is confident that inflation will rise, and that was the key criterion that changed," said Guy LeBas, managing director and chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia.
Stocks held earlier gains and the yield on two-year Treasury notes briefly topped 1 percent for the first time in five years. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.6 percent to 2,056.32 at 2:14 p.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed from Tuesday.
While the vote was unanimous, the rate forecasts show that two officials among the full group of voters and non-voters saw no rate increases as appropriate in 2015, without identifying them.
“The committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate,” the FOMC said. “The actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.”
Balance Sheet
The FOMC said it expects to maintain the size of its balance sheet “until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way.”
The quarter-point increase in the target fed funds rate, the overnight interbank lending rate that influences other borrowing costs in the economy, was forecast by 102 of 105 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The Fed gave a largely positive assessment of the U.S. economy, saying that expansion continued at a “moderate pace” and that a “range” of job-market indicators “confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year.”
The central bank also said that the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market are now “balanced,” changing from a previous reference to being “nearly balanced.”
Accomodative Policy
The Fed said monetary policy is still “accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.”
The central bank acknowledged the state of low inflation, saying that it plans to “carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward” its 2 percent target.
As part of the decision, the Fed increased the interest it pays on overnight reverse repos to 0.25 percent from 0.05 percent to put a floor at the lower end of the range. It also raised the interest it pays on excess reserves held at the Fed to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent to mark the upper end of the range.
In a related move, the Fed’s Board of Governors unanimously voted to raise the discount rate, which covers direct loans to banks, by a quarter point to 1 percent.
